NHL best bets: Capitals vs. Sabres odds, preview, prediction for Thursday 4/11

Capitals vs. Sabres Odds

Thursday, April 11, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN+

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NHL odds here.

Washington Capitals

It didn't have to be this dramatic. Much of Washington's direct competition has struggled recently, but the Capitals failed to take advantage and went 0-4-2 from March 28-April 7. Washington put that losing streak in the rearview mirror Tuesday, but with four games left on the schedule, the Capitals have just a one-point edge over Pittsburgh and Detroit in the battle for the second wild-card seed.

Washington's fate will be determined in no small part by goaltender Charlie Lindgren. He was in net for five contests across the six-game losing streak and posted a 3.92 GAA and an .875 save percentage in those contests. The fact that Washington stuck with him during the slump speaks to how secure his hold on the starting job is ahead of Darcy Kuemper.

Alex Ovechkin will also play a huge role in determining Washington's future. Although his 30 goals and 63 points in 75 games this season represents a decline from 42 markers in 2022-23, the veteran forward has four goals over his past four games and 12 markers across his past 13 appearances. That accounts for 34.3% of Washington's goals over that stretch, which speaks to both how impressive Ovechkin has been and how underwhelming the Capitals are in terms of secondary scoring.

Secondary scoring isn't a new issue for Washington — the Capitals rank 29th with just 2.64 goals per game — but it does mean that whether Washington wins Thursday will disproportionately depend on the performance of just two players — Ovechkin and the goaltender.

Buffalo Sabres

The Sabres, who will continue their playoff drought that dates back to 2011, have to be looking at Washington with envy. Well, at least Buffalo has an opportunity to make things tough on the Capitals.

Buffalo is led by its forward core of Alex Tuch (21 goals, 58 points), Tage Thompson (29, 55), JJ Peterka (28, 50), Casey Mittelstadt (14, 47), Jeff Skinner (24, 45) and Dylan Cozens (15, 43), along with offensive defenseman Rasmus Dahlin (2o, 58). Their production has fallen substantially since 2022-23, when the Sabres finished the season with five players above the 65-point milestone, but is still a step up from the 2023-24 Capitals, who have just three players with at least 40 points. The Sabres are tied for 22nd with 2.96 goals per game.

Even if it's better than Washington's, the Sabres' offense is still a source of disappointment. Meanwhile, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has been a silver lining. The 25-year-old is enjoying a breakout campaign with a 26-22-3 record, a 2.58 GAA and a .910 save percentage over 52 appearances. He also helped Buffalo get past Washington on April 2 by saving 24 of 26 shots.

The only X-Factor is if the Sabres start Eric Comrie instead. It's unlikely — Comrie hasn't been in net for Buffalo since March 7 — but he would represent a significant downgrade if he does get the nod. The 28-year-old netminder has a 1-7-0 record to go along with a 3.91 GAA and an .864 save percentage over nine outings this season.

Capitals vs. Sabres

Betting Pick & Prediction

Despite Washington being in a playoff position, the Sabres are priced as the favorites. Part of that might be because the game will be played in Buffalo — the Capitals are 17-18-4 on the road — but the bigger factor is likely that the records aren't necessarily reflective of which team is actually better.

The Capitals have been an anomaly this season. Their goal differential (-40) is the sixth worst in the league and far below Buffalo's (-1). Also, their expected goal differential per 60 is similarly dreary and ranks 27th (-0.38), which also puts them below the Sabres (-0.21).

I think the Capitals have some more narrow victories left in them. Given the added motivation of playing for a playoff spot and Ovechkin being red hot, I recommend taking Washington on the moneyline.

Pick: Washington Capitals Moneyline (BetMGM +115) | Play to +100